The Simple Question that Stumped Everyone Except Marilyn vos Savant

To learn about Marilyn, here's our newest video on her life (April 2024):

I had the honor of having dinner with this lady while I was in college. Smart as hell, but very down-to-earth.

I would have switched to door #2 as well but for a very different reason. I would have assume that the goats would need to be kept as far apart as possible so they would be less likely to incite each other into making noise and thus giving their relative positions away. Putting the car in between them would help keep them out of each other's sight. I might just have won the car because I knew more about goats than mathematics in that instant!

I am most impressed with the math professor who publicly admitted his mistake. It is so refreshing to see someone who will actually take responsibility for their errors, regardless of how embarrassing it may be. If only our politicians could show as much humility. Much respect.

People humbly and publicly admitting to be wrong, if only that existed today.

The best thing about this video is a reminder that when people publicly stated something incorrect, they used to express accountability and humility. That never happens anymore.

Simpler explanation; assume you always switch:

I've long understood the Monty Hall solution - but extrapolating the information scale to 100 doors - makes complete sense - knowing that the "one door" is hot - and that you have a 98% chance of being wrong on your first door choice.

When you initially explained that the other door would have a 2/3rd probability of a car being behind it, i couldn't understand it one bit. But i loved the explaination including a 100 doors where 98 were removed. That explaination immediately clicked to me and now I get it! What an interesting question. I always love these kinds of probability questions cuz they make me use my brain in ways I don't get to use while studying 😅

This hurts my brain. But even high level mathematicians didn't understand it at first so I can't feel too bad for not getting it.

Imagine how intelligent the person who created this problem would be

Now I get it. He will never pick your door, and 2 out of 3 times you have the goat, so in those 2 out of 3 times you have the goat, he reveals the other goat and only the car is left. You win. The only time you lose is when you have the car to begin with.

I look at it this way. There are only three possibilities:

Really impressed with the individuals that took accountability for ridiculing her and publicly apologized. That sort of character is in short supply

First encountered this in high school. I tried to explain: "if you switch it's like picking 2 doors instead of 1", which convinced very few classmates. The teacher noted that I had good intuition and poor articulation. So true.

I loved math in school. I am 65 years old now, and I have not had this much fun with math is a long time.. Thank You😄😄

True! If you initially pick the car you will lose upon switch. If you initially pick the goat you will win upon switch. However picking the car is way less likely... compared to initially picking a goat. So switching has highest chances of winning.

A good way to think about this problem is: You first choose one door. You are then able to change your choice to BOTH the other doors. you get a car even if one of the doors have a goat behind it. This is the exact same thing as to show the goat beforehand.

People learn much better when they're allowed to follow their interests. If the subject is something that bores you, you'll only retain the information for a required time (test date, usually), but if you are interested, you'll track down information and fill-out the subject more thoroughly. This is the way I educated my youngest son - he chose the subjects and the timing. He graduated top-of-class in Navy Submarine School and is now stationed on a nuclear sub based in Hawaii (his chosen profession)

I can't believe PHD holders were so wrong.